Friday, January 23, 2015

Verapat speaks to the BBC on Thailand's Politics




Verapat Pariyawong interviewed by BBC World News on Thai politics following the impeachment of former Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra. 


Impact, BBC World News TV 23 January 2015


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For further background and comments by Verapat Pariyawong please see:



 












Friday, December 5, 2014

Thailand's Incubating Conflict



Insights on Thailand
  is a weekly newsletter with commentary and selected updates on Thailand from Verapat Pariyawong, Visiting Scholar at SOAS, University of London.
Comments are welcomed via @NewVerapat or verapat@post.harvard.edu. 
For more information please visit http://www.verapat.com/

4 December 2014 


Commentary by Verapat Pariyawong 

The military regime in Thailand continues to attract criticisms even from international experts invited to speak at a recent junta-supervised event attended by foreign diplomats in Bangkok. Many Thais also share the same concerns, although they are forbidden from expressing critical views. Further, as reminded this week by the Wall Street Journal, the regime's ongoing attempts to prevent former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra and his allies from taking power again even if they win elections will only destroy the possibility of any consensus building within the Thai society.

Such climate can only hampers the quality, if any, of the constitutional making process that is underway; the result of which is likely to generate further political conflicts despite the outcome of 2016 election promised by the regime.


Selected News of the Week


A Coup Ordained? Thailand’s Prospects for Stability
International Crisis Group, 3 December 2014

Martial law has brought calm but not peace to Thailand’s febrile politics. The military regime’s stifling of dissent precludes a frank dialogue on the kingdom’s future and could lead to greater turmoil than that which brought about the May 2014 coup.

 Key findings and recommendations:
  • The 22 May coup demonstrated the failure of the 2006 coup and subsequent governments to address the factors underpinning Thailand’s protracted conflict. More than ever, the society is riven across regional, ethnic and quasi-ideological lines, by deep income inequality and by a difficult relationship between Bangkok and its peripheries.
  • At the heart of the turmoil is not only a political struggle but disagreement over what constitutes legitimate authority, with some regarding the popular ballot as paramount and others regarding majoritarianism as another form of tyranny, requiring strong checks and balances by the establishment. In the background, a looming royal succession – prohibited by law from being discussed – adds to the uncertainty.
  • To achieve its stated goal of establishing a durable democracy, the NCPO must encourage the development of a national dialogue, provide for meaningful political participation of all and reach out particularly to those in the North and North East who believe they have been serially disenfranchised by the Bangkok establishment. Failure to do so risks an eventual clash between the army and protesters, such as those that resulted from the 1991 and 2006 coups.
 
Thailand’s Generals Promise Reform Amid Skepticism
Voice of America, 3 December 2014

The two top generals of the junta running Thailand on Wednesday defended the May 22 coup that ousted the civilian government but told international audiences in Bangkok they are committed to a return to democracy.

 
Thailand Unravels
The Wall Street Journal, 3 Dec 2014

Unlike previous military coups in Thailand, which have been followed by the appointment of a civilian government and fresh elections, the country’s new strongman is playing a more worrying game. The 36-member committee appointed by the junta in November appears to be to prevent allies of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra from taking power again, even if they take elections.


Prayut backs human rights website ban
Bangkok Post, 2 Dec 2014

Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha has defended the government's decision to block the website of the Thai branch of Human Rights Watch, saying the page has been barred because it breached rules on national security.


Growth momentum remains weak in Thailand
Deutsche Welle, 2 Dec 2014

While the military government has succeeded in stabilizing the economy, the growth momentum is still weak. Rajiv Biswas, Asia-Pacific Chief Economist at the analytics firm HIS stated in an interview with Deutsche Welle: ‘Thailand faces an increasingly competitive regional landscape in ASEAN…Therefore, if Thailand pursues more protectionist policies that increase the hurdles for foreign businesses”.


Thai banks chase regional dreams as domestic lending boom fades
Reuters, 1 Dec 2014

The author comments that major Thai banks are following Thai companies in focusing on neighboring countries such as Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and Vietnam for investment. "Expanding in foreign markets where we are not familiar has some risks. But if our clients go first and we follow them, this will help reduce some risks" said the executive vice president of Bangkok Bank.


Reports of Thailand's Revival Are Greatly Exaggerated
Bloomberg, 27 Nov 2014

May's coup has only stemmed the bleeding caused by months of political turmoil as Thailand is set to remain the slowest-growing economy in Southeast Asia through 2016. Early drafts of the military’s plan for returning power to civilians suggest that political reforms will be designed not to heal Thailand's divides, but to ensure that followers of exiled former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra cannot return to power through elections.  

Thursday, November 27, 2014

Return to Democracy Not Yet in Sight


Insights on Thailand
  is a weekly newsletter with commentary and selected updates on Thailand from Verapat Pariyawong, Visiting Scholar at SOAS, University of London.
Comments are welcomed via @NewVerapat or verapat@post.harvard.edu. 
For more information please visit http://www.verapat.com/

27 November 2014 


Commentary by Verapat Pariyawong 

Thailand's return to democracy is not yet in sight as senior members of the military government signaled with the news that the elections initially promised in 2015 could be delayed until as late as 2016. This looks particularly grim when the comments came from two ministers, one in charge of security, and another in charge of economy.

Spreading anti-coup leaflets continues to be seen as a cause for arrest and the Thailand page of Human Rights Watch poses enough threat to be blocked by the junta. No real positive progress has been made six months after the coup as the junta are working to ensure that there remains a climate of fear, or as one blogger called it the perils of different thoughts.

On the economic front, the World Bank has predicted that Thailand would remain the slowest-growing economy in South-East Asia till 2016 (see pages 153-156 of this report). While there may be efforts by the junta for short term push, the long term negative effect on investment and economic growth will be felt. Morgan Stanley for instance noted that companies are now looking to expand elsewhere

Much uncertainly awaits in the coming weeks as the junta-appointed National Assembly is set to deliberate whether or not to engage in a bizarre retroactive impeachment of former Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra. Also full of speculation is the sensational cleaning up of a high-level corruption ring alleged to have falsely claimed links to the royal palace, and who knows where this story might lead us to next.


Selected News of the Week


Thailand's elections could be delayed until 2016
BBC, 27 Nov 2014


In an exclusive BBC interview, Thai Finance Minister Sommai Phasee says that democratic elections could be delayed by another 18 months.


Thai election pushed back to 2016 - deputy PM
The Nation, 27 Nov 2014


A Thai general election planned for next year will be delayed until 2016, Deputy Prime Minister Prawit Wongsuwan said Thursday.


Human Rights Watch Thailand web page blocked 
The Bangkok Post, 27 Nov 2014 


The Thai government has blocked direct access to the Thailand page of the Human Rights Watch (HRW) website after receiving harsh criticism from the organisation.


Thailand: Unending Repression 6 Months Post-Coup
Human Rights Watch, 25 Nov 2014


Thailand’s military government is severely repressing fundamental rights and freedoms six months after its May 22, 2014 coup. The ruling National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO) has shown no genuine signs of restoring democratic civilian rule.


Why Thailand's Junta Is Afraid of The Hunger Games
Bloomberg Businessweek, 24 Nov 2014

According to a report by Morgan Stanley, “private companies were focused more on expanding internationally either in neighboring countries or other ASEAN countries, rather than committing significantly to domestic growth in 2015.”


8 student activists arrested for distributing anti-coup leaflets
Prachatai English, 24 Nov 2014


Eight student activists, including a student who was arrested for giving the anti-coup three-fingered salute at the Hunger Games 3 premiere last week, were arrested after they distributed anti-coup leaflets at Thammasat University, Tha Prachan campus.
 
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