Thailand's Incubating Conflict

Insights on Thailand
  is a weekly newsletter with commentary and selected updates on Thailand from Verapat Pariyawong, Visiting Scholar at SOAS, University of London.
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4 December 2014 

Commentary by Verapat Pariyawong 

The military regime in Thailand continues to attract criticisms even from international experts invited to speak at a recent junta-supervised event attended by foreign diplomats in Bangkok. Many Thais also share the same concerns, although they are forbidden from expressing critical views. Further, as reminded this week by the Wall Street Journal, the regime's ongoing attempts to prevent former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra and his allies from taking power again even if they win elections will only destroy the possibility of any consensus building within the Thai society.

Such climate can only hampers the quality, if any, of the constitutional making process that is underway; the result of which is likely to generate further political conflicts despite the outcome of 2016 election promised by the regime.

Selected News of the Week

A Coup Ordained? Thailand’s Prospects for Stability
International Crisis Group, 3 December 2014

Martial law has brought calm but not peace to Thailand’s febrile politics. The military regime’s stifling of dissent precludes a frank dialogue on the kingdom’s future and could lead to greater turmoil than that which brought about the May 2014 coup.

 Key findings and recommendations:
  • The 22 May coup demonstrated the failure of the 2006 coup and subsequent governments to address the factors underpinning Thailand’s protracted conflict. More than ever, the society is riven across regional, ethnic and quasi-ideological lines, by deep income inequality and by a difficult relationship between Bangkok and its peripheries.
  • At the heart of the turmoil is not only a political struggle but disagreement over what constitutes legitimate authority, with some regarding the popular ballot as paramount and others regarding majoritarianism as another form of tyranny, requiring strong checks and balances by the establishment. In the background, a looming royal succession – prohibited by law from being discussed – adds to the uncertainty.
  • To achieve its stated goal of establishing a durable democracy, the NCPO must encourage the development of a national dialogue, provide for meaningful political participation of all and reach out particularly to those in the North and North East who believe they have been serially disenfranchised by the Bangkok establishment. Failure to do so risks an eventual clash between the army and protesters, such as those that resulted from the 1991 and 2006 coups.
Thailand’s Generals Promise Reform Amid Skepticism
Voice of America, 3 December 2014

The two top generals of the junta running Thailand on Wednesday defended the May 22 coup that ousted the civilian government but told international audiences in Bangkok they are committed to a return to democracy.

Thailand Unravels
The Wall Street Journal, 3 Dec 2014

Unlike previous military coups in Thailand, which have been followed by the appointment of a civilian government and fresh elections, the country’s new strongman is playing a more worrying game. The 36-member committee appointed by the junta in November appears to be to prevent allies of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra from taking power again, even if they take elections.

Prayut backs human rights website ban
Bangkok Post, 2 Dec 2014

Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha has defended the government's decision to block the website of the Thai branch of Human Rights Watch, saying the page has been barred because it breached rules on national security.

Growth momentum remains weak in Thailand
Deutsche Welle, 2 Dec 2014

While the military government has succeeded in stabilizing the economy, the growth momentum is still weak. Rajiv Biswas, Asia-Pacific Chief Economist at the analytics firm HIS stated in an interview with Deutsche Welle: ‘Thailand faces an increasingly competitive regional landscape in ASEAN…Therefore, if Thailand pursues more protectionist policies that increase the hurdles for foreign businesses”.

Thai banks chase regional dreams as domestic lending boom fades
Reuters, 1 Dec 2014

The author comments that major Thai banks are following Thai companies in focusing on neighboring countries such as Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and Vietnam for investment. "Expanding in foreign markets where we are not familiar has some risks. But if our clients go first and we follow them, this will help reduce some risks" said the executive vice president of Bangkok Bank.

Reports of Thailand's Revival Are Greatly Exaggerated
Bloomberg, 27 Nov 2014

May's coup has only stemmed the bleeding caused by months of political turmoil as Thailand is set to remain the slowest-growing economy in Southeast Asia through 2016. Early drafts of the military’s plan for returning power to civilians suggest that political reforms will be designed not to heal Thailand's divides, but to ensure that followers of exiled former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra cannot return to power through elections.