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| Photo by facebook.com/DistrictThai2014 |
It
has been six months since the latest military coup in Thailand; human rights
are under threat, the economy has weakened, and promises of an early return to
democracy are fading. Yet while the military regime flounders to enforce
happiness at gunpoint, there are alarming signs that not just few Thais are getting
used to it.
On
May 22 of this year, Thai military chiefs led by General Prayuth Chan-ocha seized
power from the democratically elected government of Thailand’s first woman
prime minister, Yingluck Shinawatra. Bangkok had been gridlocked for months by protests.
Fresh elections called by the Prime Minister were obstructed by the protestors
who benefited from dubious judicial interventions that eventually led to the country’s
13th effected coup since 1932.
The junta
dissolved both house of parliament and replaced the previous constitution with
its own interim version; giving itself full legislative and executive power
(and awarded its members a retrospective amnesty). The Thai judiciary meanwhile
accepts the junta’s commands as laws. All of this has been done with the
promise of peace, progress and national reform supervised by the regime.
Such
promise of illusion is quite a déjà vu. Back in 2006, Yingluck’s brother and
predecessor, Thaksin Shinawatra, was ousted by a military coup. Thaksin implemented
unprecedented economic and healthcare policies which were popular among the large
rural population and parts of the emerging middle class, but the powerful traditional
Bangkok-based elite felt threatened by his populist policies which they labelled
as corrupt.
Thus
the 2006 coup instigators initiated controversial and irregular investigations resulting
in Thaksin being convicted in absentia on charges of corruption and abuse of power.
The 2007 constitution was put in place under the military’s supervision to ensure
that Thaksin could not return to power, but the majority of the population eventually
supported his sister Yingluck who proceeded as promised to undo the work of the
2006 coup, but not soon enough before the regime struck first.
There
is however one striking difference this time. On top of declaring martial law
and promising national progress, the junta proclaimed that a “Return of Happiness”
would now be strictly imposed. Politicians and activists were detained, free
media constrained, and academics and other potential dissidents were summoned to
account for their views to the men in uniform. Military courts try civilians.
The
current junta does not tolerate any form of non-violent dissents; even students
who stood peacefully in public and displayed the three-finger salute from the
Hunger Games movies, now an expression of anti-coup sentiment, were taken to
army camps or police stations, and threatened with criminal prosecutions.
Similar to President Snow, General Prayuth is maintaining unity by ensuring
that those Thais who resist will suffer.
The
most worrying point, however, is the generational effect of the coup especially
on the young Thais. Democracy is never instant; it takes generations. Bad
choices are made so we learn to make better ones. But young Thais are growing
accustomed to elected governments being removed from office, not by will or
choice that is grounded on participatory experience, but by force that trumps
indifference.
Worse,
not only are choices taken away, they are to be officially forgotten. The name
of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra has been removed from history
textbooks; his record cannot be scrutinised by students. For different reasons,
the junta cannot be criticized in the classroom - instead, pupils must recite a
list of the junta’s ostensible values, which ironically include learning to
understand democracy and respect for the law. Yingluck’s
name is at risk too as she is facing a bizarre retroactive impeachment that
might later trigger a lifelong ban from politics.
Critical
thinking has become dangerous for the junta that is pushing for a new
constitution that will serve as a transitional power sharing structure among
the old and the new elites, but leaving little for the rest. Yet this vision is
so unrealistic that even those who once backed his coup are rumoured to be
planning another take-over.
The
international community has not engaged with the situation. The European Union
has cut off all official negotiations and high-level bilateral contacts. The
US, however, went ahead with long-planned military exercises in partnership
with the Thai junta, though ostensibly shifting the focus towards humanitarian
operations.
China
meanwhile takes a pragmatic approach; it knows that what happens in Thailand
will shape the debate over western-style democracy in Myanmar, Cambodia and the
wider region. The two Shinawatras were recently photographed in China with a
panda cub, on a private visit escorted by a senior Chinese official, which
indicates that Beijing expects them to remain important - a message that came
across so clearly that the nervous junta had to tell Thai media not to report
on former Thai leaders.
Thailand
is important – a crucial anchor for economic growth, and potentially reference
point for political transition in South-East Asia. Yet that growth has slumped,
and that transition is going into reverse. The land of smiles can do better when
its citizens can think and not forced to grin at gunpoint, and Thailand’s
friends should say so very clearly and act accordingly.
Verapat
Pariyawong is a Visiting Scholar at SOAS, University of London. He served as Special
Counsel to the Deputy Prime Minister of Thailand prior to the coup d’état of
2014.